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wars, guns and votes pdf

“Tribe or Nation? Could the effect of ethnic diversity be similar? Increasingly since the 1990s, the healing balm for post-conflict tensions and hatreds upon which the international community has relied, and indeed insisted, has been an election. One reason is that there are too many players. It was not dictatorship in itself, or diversity in it- Ethnic Politics 65 self, but only their combination. However, Gueï’s truly serious miscalculation was to overestimate not his votes but his firepower. The first act of President Johnson-Sirleaf was to dismiss the entire staff of the ministry of finance. The national income of Luxembourg, the joke tiny country of Europe, is around four times that of the average country of the bottom billion. 156 WARS, GUNS, AND VOTES The high-risk strategy nearly came off, but not quite: Cote d’Ivoire is now regarded as one of the region’s least tractable development disasters. In moving they went to areas where they were not registered to vote, so he no longer had to worry about them. In a democracy a government has no choice but to try to deliver what ordinary citizens want. Globally, at the last count there were seventy such claims. How big a threat is your neighbor? We need Bricklayers Without Borders. Could it have been something else associated with the French presence? On a randomized basis across Nigeria, Action Aid organized powerful local campaigns against intimidation. Iraq 2 is at the opposite end of the spectrum: preemptive total intervention. As other estimates build up we will learn the range of credible answers. After Iraq, international peacekeeping provided by the forces of the high-income countries is unpopular, both with voters in the high-income world and with alarmed governments of the bottom billion. Scale is not everything, of course; quality matters as well. The important one is what happens if it subsequently finds that it is heading for defeat in an election. So what were the two opposing effects? To my mind this is reasonably convincing. We are at last ready for the punch-line number: the ratio of benefits to costs is better than four to one. But here are the results that I think toll the death knell for ethnic politics. Kaunda did a little better than Suharto: he managed to get about 20 percent of the vote, so some people did indeed love him, namely those in his home region, which he had favored with public spending. Contrary to most of his colleagues, he had governed well. Most would-be rebels just cannot muster the money regardless of their motivation. For that we need an estimate of the costs of conflict. Presi dents , res u m e rea d in g h er e : I am going to investigate what determines a coup. So i n N i g eria po liticia n s h a d clearly resorted to socially dysfunctional strategies of vote winning. The opposite of luxuries is necessities. For the present I want to stay with the spread of democracy. But in low-income countries, democracy made the society more Votes and Violence 21 dangerous. The same is the case if they have a wage job as opposed to the traditional occupation of farmer. If the problem is that societies are too small to supply key public goods, then it is pointless to place national sovereignty on a pedestal. My deepest thanks go t, WARS, GUNS, and VOTES Democracy in Dangerous Places PA U L C O L L I E R For John Githongo: his struggle CONTENTS Introduction: Democracy in Dangerous Places 1 P a r t I : D en y in g Rea lity : D emocr azy Chapter 1: Votes and Violence 15 Chapter 2: Ethnic Politics 51 Chapter 3: Inside the Cauldron: Post-Conflict Settlements 75 P a r t I I : Fa cin g Rea lity : Na sty, Br utish, and Long Chapter 4: Guns: Fueling the Fire 103 Chapter 5: Wars: The Political Economy of Destruction 121 Chapter 6: Coups: The Unguided Missile 141 Chapter 7: Meltdown in Cote d’Ivoire 155 iv Contents P a r t I I I : Cha n g in g Rea lity : A ccountab ility and Se c u r ity Chapter 8: State Building and Nation Building 169 Chapter 9: Better Dead Than Fed? Impatient presidents can skip to the next section. I have already recounted the anecdote about the Mercedes bought for the speaker of the Nigerian House, but there is more systematic evidence. Remember: work backward, so step 2 is first. With Anke Hoeffler “Unintended Consequences: Does Aid Promote Arms Races?” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 69, no. Prospecting is costly, and so the value of proven reserves is an economic concept as much as a geological one. The first is what is known as over-the-horizon guarantees. Indeed, this is a very strategic additional five years because it was the period of a major effort by the international community to settle wars, and so we can test whether it also reduced the incidence of outbreaks. And even if I worked out what needed to change, the civil service isn’t up to implementing it. But it only needs a few people to take the time and energy to find out in order for the share price to be affected: if they discover that the company is being hurt by an embargo, they will sell their shares and the price of the stock will fall. But they only arrived just in the nick of time: as Lord Wellington said of the former, somewhat grander battle, it was “a damned close thing.” So , i f econ o m ic recovery is the exit strategy, how can it be facilitated? Regional cooperation is the least invasive challenge to national sovereignty, and so if it is feasible, it is at this level that international supply of accountability and security should be undertaken. So how can the researcher be careful? Yet if the many disparate ethnic communities had been packaged together into a few states large enough to be secure, they would have faced a horrendous task of giving their inhabitants the emotional identity necessary for a state to function. Finally, guns may be plentiful where there is a lot of violence, but this may be because in societies that are violent 104 WARS, GUNS, AND VOTES for whatever underlying reason, people make sure they have guns around: the guns are a consequence, not a cause. NATO is such a force providing mutual guarantees. Potenti al ly th e s tates o f th e bottom billion could themselves cooperate to supply the public goods that cannot be supplied at the level of each state. One or two got caught out before they could win. Such decisions should not be taken on the basis of turf wars: in the end, the question of whether peacekeeping gives value for money has to be faced. And it is danger that is my subject. The international community finally started to pay serious attention to the running sores of longlasting civil wars. Quite manifestly, Africa no longer faces a military threat external to the region: all its threats are internal, either threats between neighbors or fears of rebellion. The accountability effect works as follows. For example, income is likely to be affected by both conflict and the political regime. # PDF Wars Guns And Votes Democracy In Dangerous Places # Uploaded By Michael Crichton, in wars guns and votes paul collier investigates the violence and poverty in the small remote countries at the lowest level of the global economy and argues that the spread of elections and peace settlements may lead to a brave new democratic War, Guns and Votes: Democracy in Dangerous Places, by Paul Collier The wars that will fill our television screens this century will be civil wars, not international wars. Victor discovered that capital flight in post-conflict situations was particularly sensitive to inflation, much more than in normal peacetime conditions. The key insight came by the simple psychological technique of imagining myself in the position of being a former dictator in one of the countries of the bottom billion who had caved in to pressure from donors to democratize. This creates a potential tension between the scale economies that could be reaped by mergers between countries and the greater ethnic diversity that would probably be a consequence. The great archaeological legacies of antiquity, such as the Great Wall of China and the massive barrier constructed across Jutland by the ancient Jutes against the Germanic tribes, stand as an enduring testimony to the overwhelming priority afforded to collective defense. If soverei gn s tates a re to o small, yet regional cooperation between them is too difficult, one radical alternative is to federate them into a few larger states. There is so little common national feeling that both of these societies periodically teeter upon the brink of breaking apart as states. Principled Agents? Aid could be resumed, and Cote d’Ivoire’s offshore oil could be tapped without awkward questions. So what will the military say? The commitment is to put down any coup against the government, by military force if necessary. “Detecting Illegal Arms Trade.” NBER Working Papers no. Believe it or not, these things are measured, country by country, and year by year. The story is similar for economic policy. Tiresomely, you find that the main thrust of his research is to investigate whether bribery can be countered. Over-the-horizon guarantees look as though they work. But would state merger further worsen the lack of cohesion? This provides a further reason for the reduction in political violence. Not only does identity trump policies, but to the extent that policies do enter, instead of a race to capture the vote of Ms. Today, as I make my final revisions to the manuscript, the phrase has literally come true: President Mugabe has banned food aid to his starving country. Since the end of the Cold War two extraordinary changes have occurred, each of which may be opportunities for a decisive shift away from political violence. But it faces its own desperate fiscal challenges. It i s ti m e to retu rn to that awkward-looking question that I parked: do coups typically lead to improvement or deterioration? Was government power limited by checks and balances? Even the big poor countries are now pretty safe: China and India have massive armies, but they haven’t used them against each other for more than forty years. The Hutu government could slaughter Tutsi civilians with machetes because they were unarmed, but rebels face government armies and so they need guns. A corrupt finance minister can ensure that it is badly spent, but unfortunately the converse does not apply. More specifically, because of the problems of legitimacy and incentives, it will need to come predominantly from that part of the international community in which governments are already subject to effective accountability. I read their study with the mixed emotions of delight that the topic had engaged such a heavyweight team, admiration that they had pursued possibilities that I had missed, and, of course, trepidation that my own work might be revealed as a house of cards. I almost forgot Luxembourg, which is equally keen. How were they to know what to believe? I think it would in America or Britain, and indeed across most of the rich world. Mwangi Kimenyi and Njuguna Ndung’u. This is where ethnicity comes in: you do not choose your ethnic group. Why each of these is a realistic prospect for today’s children is the subject of this book. Onto this scene of specialization now add economies of scale in violence, this being a fancy way of saying that size matters. After all, the other side has the advantage of numbers: if they didn’t, you would not have to worry about winning the election. Language was not the only strategy for surmounting tribal identity that he adopted. Box 1 Auckland, New Zealand http://www.harpercollins.co.nz United Kingdom HarperCollins Publishers Ltd. 77-85 Fulham Palace Road London, W6 8JB, UK http://www.harpercollinsebooks.co.uk United States HarperCollins Publishers Inc. 10 East 53rd Street New York, NY 10022 http://www.harpercollinsebooks.com. If the army is the menace, then perhaps the safest thing is to slim it down. This might be why, over and above those effects of democracy that depended upon the level of income, there was the pure effect that increased political violence. Among the high-income countries themselves this is indeed the clear pattern: the two countries that have been least interested in pooling sovereignty are the two largest, America and Japan. After seven months he had three hundred observations, which was enough for statistical analysis. Taken together with the previous result, coups are less likely to throw out truly bad governments than to throw out better ones. In the face of voter ingratitude presidents gradually learned how to adapt to the new circumstances. Most of the dying is not as a result of battle, but due to sickness. Quite probably the same process has been going on in Africa. Here is my guess. At the other end of the spectrum of leadership in- State Building and Nation Building 177 competence, Haile Selassie was so besotted with the idea of being an emperor that within a decade he turned the new federal state of Ethiopia and Eritrea into an Ethiopian Empire with Eritrea as its colony.

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